The Digital Coin Flip
Explore the reality of probability versus human intuition in project estimation.
How to Play & Simulation Objectives
Start with a large batch (20). You are Worker A. Click the "Flip" button to process items. Watch how long it takes for the Customer to get the first coin.
Theoretical Background & Agile Dynamics
This game is a digital simulation of the classic 'Penny Game,' used to demonstrate a core principle of Flow Efficiency: reducing batch size is one of the most effective ways to increase the speed of value delivery. Large batches create long wait times and idle periods for downstream workers, even if everyone is 'busy'.
Key concepts at play: - <1>Lead Time:</1> The total time from request to delivery. Small batches dramatically reduce the 'Time to First Delivery,' which is often what the customer cares about most. - <1>Cycle Time:</1> The time to process one item. While individual cycle time is constant, the system's overall cycle time improves with flow. - <1>Resource Efficiency vs. Flow Efficiency:</1> Large batches focus on keeping workers busy (Resource Efficiency), but this creates queues and delays value. Small batches focus on moving the work quickly through the entire system (Flow Efficiency), which delivers value to the customer faster. This might feel less 'efficient' because some workers may be idle, but the overall system is much faster. - <1>Little's Law:</1> This simulation is a practical example of Little's Law (Lead Time = Work In Progress / Throughput). By reducing the batch size, you are effectively reducing the amount of Work In Progress (WIP) in the system, which directly leads to a shorter Lead Time.